If Only German Muslims Voted, the AFD and CDU Would’ve Earned Only 18% of the Vote

The old adage that demographics is destiny seemed to play out in the German federal elections, at least to some extent. While the actual election results saw the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Christian Democrats (CDU) earn nearly 50 percent of all votes, if only Muslims had voted, this total between the two parties would have only reached 18 percent. Left-wing parties, in contrast, would have received close to 80 percent of the vote.

The data from research group Wahlen, which was conducted for state-media outlet ZDF, showed that the Muslims with German citizenship backed left-wing parties in overwhelmingly high numbers during the election on Sunday. In fact, their top party was the Left Party, with 29 percent of Muslims backing the party according to an election day survey. The Social Democrats (SPD) received 28 percent.

The CDU and CSU received 12 percent of the Muslim vote, while the AfD received only 6 percent. Notably, the Greens only received 4 percent, even less than the anti-immigration AfD. The BSW received 6 percent, and although the party is left-wing, they are also anti-immigration to some degree.

While voting data was also made available for Catholics, Protestants, and those without a denomination — with the AfD winning in the last category — these metrics are not so useful for examining how foreigners are voting in Germany. Although some African migrants are Catholics, for instance, almost all Muslim voters are foreigners or German citizens with a migration background, making it a useful metric for examining the voting patterns of Germany’s largest foreign religious group. Their numbers are also rapidly growing in Germany, so this group’s voting power will only grow over time.

It is not just right-wingers that see these trends. German Muslim politicians also appear to be aware and see it as a source of “strength.” Shortly before the elections. SPD politician Sawsan Chebli posted about the future demographics of Germany, saying it would favor immigrants. Her social media post was targeted towards migrants who were considering emigrating over what she claims are Germany’s xenophobic tendencies.

“It is incomprehensible that we have come this far,” wrote the 46-year-old former Berlin State Secretary, who has Palestinian roots. “Please don’t give up! It is your country too. Demographics will create facts. Get involved, raise your voice — even if they don’t want you to.”

What were Muslims voting for?

Of course, Muslim voting patterns cannot be entirely boiled down to pro-immigration policies, which would be a simplification. There are other issues important to Muslims that could have factored into the vote on Sunday, such as the war in Gaza. The Left Party has been critical of Israel, with certain politicians within the party highly critical. Many of these leftist politicians also back Gaza openly.

The Left Party was especially strong in Berlin and won a direct mandate in the multicultural neighborhood of Neukölln for the first time anywhere in Germany, with voters flocking behind Ferat Koçak. Neukölln’s district shows that a fifth of residents come from countries considered to be Muslim nations.

“Thousands of people with Palestinian roots live in Neukölln. For me, it is a matter of course that I campaign for an end to German arms exports to Israel and a just peace for all people in the region,” Koçak said in an interview with the weekly newspaper Der Freitag before the election.

However, the issue of Gaza, while tragic, showcases that foreign conflicts suddenly factor into the voting patterns of the country’s increasingly foreign population. For Kurdish voters in Germany, for instance, the conflict with Turkey may influence who they vote for. In short, the interests of Germany and Germans suddenly have to compete with a range of foreign issues, many of which most Germans either do not care about or have only a passing interest in.

Of course, the left also offers these poorer migrants more options for social welfare, housing, and other benefits. However, this also ties into what the right is criticizing, which is the claim that the left wants to import a welfare class that is dependent on continued social spending in order to secure votes.

Voting trends in France

The issue is not relegated to Germany either. France has the largest Muslim population in Europe, and the issue of the Great Replacement is no “fringe” topic, but features prominently on talk shows, in newspapers, and is discussed by those who are considered the greatest philosophers and authors the country has to offer.

Notably, one of France’s top politicians also recognizes the power of harnessing the Muslim vote. Last month, Jean-Luc Mélenchon said: “In our country, one person in four has a foreign grandparent. 40% of the population speaks at least two languages. We are destined to be a Creole nation and so much the better! May the young generation be the great replacement for the old generation,” said Mélenchon.

The leader of the far-left La France Insoumise, Mélenchon has long courted the Muslim vote. In fact, in the first round of the 2022 French presidential election, he earned 69 percent of French Muslims’ vote. In the runoff between Le Pen and Macron, an incredible 85 percent of Muslims voted for Macron. Other immigrant groups probably swung to Macron in similar numbers, which may have made the difference between victory and defeat.

In 2022, French philosopher Alain Finkielkraut said in an interview with French television channel Europe 1 that Mélenchon is counting on the Muslim vote to overturn President Emmanuel Macron’s majority in parliament.

During the interview, Finkielkraut said that modern France is “disintegrating,” with huge swathes of the country having been “either conquered by Islamism or delinquency.”

“Sometimes the two are interconnected,” Finkielkraut added, and accused Mélenchon of supporting Islamist ideology “including antisemitism.”

Finkielkraut also said that Mélenchon is leveraging dramatic demographic shifts in the French electorate in order to come to power, with the voting bloc of ethnic French giving way to a growing population of Africans and Middle Easterners.

“Jean-Luc Mélenchon is betting on the Great Replacement to gain power,” he said during the interview.

It was not the first time Finkielkraut mentioned the Great Replacement. In January 2022, he said the phenomenon of European peoples being replaced by Africans, Asians and Middle Easterners was “obvious.”

“This is in fact a fragmentation, and yes, this risk does exist, and in any case, I think the demographic change of Europe is extremely spectacular. The historical peoples in certain municipalities and regions are becoming a minority,” Finkielkraut said in January. “A whole part of French people now live not in the suburbs, but beyond the suburbs, because they are no longer the cultural reference they used to be, because all the butchers are, for example, Halal.”

What does the future hold?

According to Pew Research, the population of Muslims in Germany could soar to 17.4 million by 2050, representing 19.7 percent of the population. In such a scenario, a Muslim voting bloc would wield enormous power to shape national politics. The AfD and CDU, if they wanted to survive, would have to cater to this new bloc and drop their anti-immigration stance.

Ultimately, it does not matter if someone thinks Muslims are a grave threat or a wonderful benefit — or any view in between. The reality is that foreigners across the West, whether Muslim or not, overwhelmingly back the left, which also happens to be pro-migration. In other words, these newcomers have a strong incentive to vote for the parties that they feel will bring their families to the West and their fellow countrymen and women. In turn, these parties have a strong incentive to bring more immigrants in.

Notably, Muslims and other foreigners in European countries tend to vote for more immigration with their party choices, even if these parties are often at odds with their conservative social beliefs. The same trend plays out in the United States, where the majority of Muslims back the Democrats, even if the Democrats reject mainstream Muslim social values. It appears that values take a back seat to naked interest.

For those lamenting the polarization of European politics due to mass immigration, it is also worth noting that without mass immigration, the AfD in its current form would likely not even exist, and if it did exist, would not likely be anywhere close to the second largest party in Germany. This holds true for other anti-immigration parties on the right. In essence, immigration made these parties. Now, German society, the news cycle, and the political battles being waged increasingly focus on the issue, including the subsidiary issues of identity and culture.

These issues and trends show no signs of going away, and if conservative and right-wing parties want to exist in the future, they had best keep a close eye on rapidly shifting demographics. In the coming coalition between the SPD and CDU, the CDU will be playing the sucker if they don’t take action on the issue, while the SPD will laugh all the way to the voting booth the next time federal elections come around.